The Frontrunner

Mexico will have a Presidential election in 2024.  The current President, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (known as AMLO for short) is prohibited by the Constitution from running for a second term.  The leading candidate for AMLO's Morena Party is Claudia Sheinbaum.  Her campaign posters have been popping up all over Alejandro's neighborhood, a working-class area that is strongly pro-Morena.  Her name is painted ad nauseum on walls.

"Let the transformation continue."

AMLO boasts that his Presidency is "the Fourth Transformation" of Mexican society.

The other transformations were the War of Independence, the Reform War and the Mexican Revolution.

Scheinbaum was the head of government in Mexico City.  To call her the mayor is not exactly correct because since 2016 Mexico City ceased being a "Federal District" (similar to our District of Columbia) and became an entity similar to a state.  So, it would be more appropriate to liken her position to that of a governor.  In June when she announced her candidacy, she was required to step down from her position.

No one, not even her critics, can say that she is not an extremely intelligent person.  She has a PhD in environmental engineering and has published over 100 papers and two books on the environment, energy and sustainable development.  However, she has hitched her political wagon to the populist Morena party, a party created by AMLO, a man whom I characterize as a left-wing version of Trump.  Scheinbaum has received plenty of criticism.  Although she has built numerous new public transportation lines, she has been accused of not spending money on the maintenance of the existing Metro routes. This has resulted in several Metro accidents recently.  The worst tragedy was the collapse of a Metro overpass which resulted in the deaths of 26 people.  That line was built before she was in office.  However, critics say that she should have been attentive to repeated complaints of shoddy construction at that location prior to the collapse.

One of the garbage men in Alejandro's neighborhood has told him that as city workers they have been required to attend rallies for Scheinbaum, and that they have been required to write supportive comments on Facebook on a daily basis.  If that is indeed true, then it's the same old corruption that has always marked Mexican politics... corruption that AMLO claims his "Fourth Transformation" has eliminated.

Scheinbaum is currently the frontrunner as the candidate for Morena, and, if she wins next year, she will be the first woman President in Mexico's history.  Her opponent in the election may very well be a woman also... a senator for Mexico City by the name of Xóchitl Gálvez.

(image taken from the internet)

AMLO and his Morena Party have been such a divisive force that the three other major political parties have formed a coalition to defeat Morena in 2024.  The conservative PAN party, the neoliberal PRI party, and the socialist PDR find themselves as strange political bedfellows in an alliance against Morena.  The favorite as the coalition candidate is Gálvez, who announced her plan to run for the Presidency in June. 

Gálvez comes from a small town in the state of Hidalgo and is of mainly indigenous ancestry.  Her father was of the Otomí tribe.  She has emphasized her humble origins, and how she sold desserts in the marketplace to raise money for her education.  She studied computer engineering at the National University of Mexico and went on to become the founder and CEO of a couple of tech companies.  

She entered politics and became a senator with the conservative PAN party, although her stance on social issues is generally progressive. With the profits from her companies, she has established a charitable foundation dedicated to combatting child malnutrition and assisting indigenous women.

Perhaps because Gálvez´s humble origins are a challenge to AMLO's claim to being a man of the people, the President has become obsessed with attacking her at his daily press conferences.  By law, he is prohibited from commenting on the 2024 elections, and the National Electoral Institute has ordered him to cease his attacks.  What is ironic is that his insults have only given Gálvez more visibility, and although she is still trailing Scheinbaum, her poll numbers are rising.

Next year's election campaign should be very interesting.