poinsettias

poinsettias
Nativity

Saturday, July 4, 2020

Wish I May

In the election of 2016 "Herr Pendejo" was not elected by the people but by the Electoral College.  If you are not from the U.S. and do not understand our bizarre Presidential election process, it boils down to this...  Each state has a number of electoral votes based on the number of representatives and senators that the state has in Congress.  Whoever wins the popular vote in a state, even if that candidate wins by only one vote, receives ALL of the electoral votes.  Thus, even though Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by around three million votes, "Herr Pendejo" won the majority in the Electoral College (304 to 227) because he won several key states by a very slim margin.

(image taken from the web)
The electoral map in 2016


There is no doubt that "Herr Pendejo" will lose the popular vote again this November.  His popularity rating has never gone above 50% during his entire time in office, and with the current crises of the pandemic, racial tension, and the economy he is going down in the polls.  Biden is currently leading "Herr Pendejo" by about 9%, which is a better position than what Hillary had at this point  

But we cannot be satisfied with the popular vote; we must look to the Electoral College.  This is where I see hope, and I am keeping my fingers crossed that the situation does not change between now and November.  Biden is currently leading by a fairly comfortable margin in the states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  It is these three states which gave "Herr Pendejo" the lead in the electoral vote.  If Biden can hold on to the states which Hillary won in 2016 and take those three states, he would have 278 electoral votes.  There would be no way that the Republican candidate could reach the 270 votes needed to win.

In addition current polls show Biden winning in Florida, a perennial battleground state, by about 5%.  That would boost his electoral total to 307.   Several traditionally Republican states are now tossups.  In recent polls Biden leads narrowly in Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas. (Imagine the Democratic candidate leading in Texas!)  In my home state of Ohio, which voted twice for Obama, but then went for the "pendejo", Biden has a slim lead of 1 or 2%.

I know it's not likely to happen, but I would love to see all those states go to Biden.  That would be a massive repudiation of "Herr Pendejo" with an electoral vote of 405 to 132.  However we must be on the look out for Republican attempts to suppress the vote or shenanigans by the "pendejo" to steal the election. 


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